•In absence of any information at all, we might say all outcomes are equally likely.
•Better, however to apply some knowledge to choice of prior probabilities (e.g. weather statistics over many years).
–P(Weather) = <0.7, 0.2,
0.08, 0.02>
–(probability distribution
over random variable Weather)
•What about low probability events that have never happened or happen too infrequently to have accurate statistics?
