CS 371: Introduction to Artificial Intelligence

Introduction to Uncertain Reasoning

Probability to the Rescue!

Decision-Theoretic Agent

Prior Probabilities

Forming Prior Probabilities

Where do Probabilities Come From?

Conditional Probabilities

Axioms of Probability

Why Are These Axioms Reasonable?

Joint Probability Distribution

Joint Probability Example

Bayes’ Rule

Bayes’ Rule

Applying Bayes’ Rule

Applying Bayes’ Rule (cont.)

Applying Bayes’ Rule (cont.)

Relative Likelihood

Relative Likelihood

Normalization

Normalization (cont.)

Conditional Independence

Conditional Independence (cont.)

Belief Networks

Choosing Variables

Identifying Direct Influences

Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs)

Probabilistic Reasoning

Computing Joint Probabilities with CPTs

Joint Probability Computation Example

Markov Blanket

Markov Blanket (cont.)

Joint Probability Computation Example

Utility Theory

Utility of Money

Decision Networks

Value of Information