| Forming Prior Probabilities |
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| • | In
absence of any information at all, we might say |
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| all
outcomes are equally likely. |
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| • | Better,
however to apply some knowledge to |
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| choice
of prior probabilities (e.g. weather statistics |
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| over
many years). |
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| P(Weather)
= <0.7, 0.2, 0.08, 0.02> |
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| (probability
distribution over random variable Weather) |
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| • | What
about low probability events that have never |
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| happened
or happen too infrequently to have |
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| accurate
statistics? |
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